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AFC East

NFC East

AFC North

Chicago Bears

QB - Mitch Trubisky

  • Trubisky threw it out of the shotgun on 90% of his passes in 2018
  • He was also only hit on 10% of dropbacks which was the second lowest rate in the league
  • Mitch was 11th in the league in average Air Yards per attempt
  • Bears receivers then ranked 35th in YAC on passes from Trubisky
  • #10Gawd threw it deep 20% of the time which was the 6th highest rate in the NFL

Wide Receivers

  • Very tight target share %’s on passes from Trubisky for Bears receivers
  • Allan Robinson 19%
  • Taylor Gabriel 18%
  • Trey Burton 16%
  • Tarik Cohen 16%
  • Anthony Miller 11%
  • Anthony Miller led receivers average YAC
  • Meanwhile Robinson led the team in average Air Yards per target

Running Back

  • As a runner Tarik Cohen pretty much exclusively runs to the outside and averaged 4.52YPC on those carries
  • New addition Mike Davis had a very efficient year with the Seahawks with 40% of his carries being over 4.5 yards
  • Davis also ran it to the outside and up the middle at almost a 50/50 split
  • The Bears also spent a 3rd round pick on RB David Montgomery

Takeaways

Trubisky saw big improvements in 2018 under new head coach Matt Nagy and seems to be a solid NFL starter. He is also only 24 years old. Nagy clearly likes to get everyone involved in the offense making it difficult to project which Bears receiver will have a heavy load any given game. And alike the receivers, it will be difficult to project the RBs for 2019. We know Cohen is more of a pass catching back. The next question is if Montgomery or Davis is the lead back in 2019 but it seems like Montgomery will be the RB1.

Detroit Lions

QB - Matthew Stafford

  • Under a new head coach Stafford had a very peculiar 2018
  • Lowest amount of attempts and yards in a full 16 game season in his career
  • Lowest passing TD total since 2012
  • Lowest yards per completion in his career
  • Stafford also averaged only 6.93 Air Yards per attempts which was 38th in the NFL
  • The QB also had the 7th highest rate of short passes
  • And as a result he didn’t throw deep often, only 13% of his passes were “deep” passes which was 37th in the NFL

Wide Receivers

  • Of current WRs Golladay led the team in Targets & Targets/Game
  • Golladay also led the team in average yards gain per target and in short targets
  • Marvin Jones led the team in Air Yards per target with 14.6
  • New addition WR Danny Amendola has executed on short passes his whole career
  • Theo Riddick averaged about 5 targets per game

Running Back

  • Kerryon Johnson was very efficient as a rookie averaging 5.4 YPC
  • However Johnson only ran it up the middle on 25% of his carries
  • The Lions recently brought in thick boi CJ Anderson who ran it up the middle on 49% of his carries in 2018
  • Despite Patricia and Co. want a bigger back to run up the middle, Johnson had a YPC of 4.97 when running up the middle in 2018

Takeaways

Very strange year for Stafford who used to be viewed as more of a gunslinger earlier in his career. My assumption is Patricia is attempting to create a very similar offense to the patriots using a lot of short passes, and a committee of running backs. Regardless, Kenny Golladay impressed in his 2nd season and should have no problem improving in year 3. By using Blount last year and bringing in Anderson this year, it is clear Patricia wants each back to have a specific role between Riddick, Kerryon, and CJ. Anderson’s stats with the rams shouldn’t be taken to seriously as he was playing behind the #1 Run Blocking unit in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers

QB - Aaron Rodgers

  • In 2018 Rodgers averaged 8.85 Air Yards per attempt which was 10th in the league
  • Rodgers led the league in passes to the left side of the field and also led the NFL in deep passes
  • As a result, Rodgers didn’t throw as much short or over the middle compared to other NFL QBs

Wide Receivers

  • Davante Adams had a 28% target share in 2018
  • Adams was near the top of the league in TDs, Yards, and EPA
  • Adams also had a 38% target share on passes to the left side of the field
  • Equanimeous St. Brown led the packers in average Air Yards per target & Average Yards Gained per target
  • St. Brown was 2nd on the team in deep targets

Running Back

  • Aaron Jones was crazy efficient in 2018 leading the NFL in YPC and ranking 7th in EPA per tough
  • Jones’ YPC up the middle was over 6
  • Jamaal Williams on the other hand had an overall YPC of 3.83
  • The Packers also drafted Notre Dame RB Dexter Williams

Takeaways

The two main takeaways from Rodgers in 2018 were that he likes to throw it to the left, and also deep. Coincidentally that is also where Davante Adams is on most of his targets. The real question is who will be the WR2. The safe bet is MVS as he performed well and had a solid amount of volume. However I would be sure to take a flier on ESB as he performed well in 2018 despite on a small sample. Aaron Jones should be the RB1 in 2019 but time will tell if new coach Matt Lafleur wants more of a committee approach.

Minnesota Vikings

QB - Kirk Cousins

  • Cousins’ season totals looked solid in 2018 however that was due to high volume
  • Cousins was 4th in the league in attempts but 24th in Yards/Attempt
  • Cousins was hit on 94 dropbacks which was the 5th highest total in the NFL
  • Cousins led the league in passes to the right side of the field
  • He also threw it short 79% of the time which was the 10th highest rate and as a result threw it deep at the 35th highest rate in the league
  • Diggs and Thielen each owned 25% of the targets from Cousins in 2018
  • Thielen led in average Yards gained and Air Yards per Pass
  • Diggs led in average YAC
  • The two each also had a 23% target share on passes to the right side of the field
  • And finally, each had a 24% target share on short passes (lol)
  • Rudolph was 3rd in overall target share however after drafting a TE his Vikings status seems in question

Running Back

  • While Cook has had health issues in his first two years, the opportunity is certainly there
  • The Vikings poor Run Blocking hindered Cook’s efficiency as he averaged 4.62YPC
  • This showed even more as Cook’s YPC up the middle was only 3.26
  • The Vikings also spent a 3rd round pick on RB Alexander Mattison

Takeaways

Lots of fantasy relevance on this offense in every area. Thielen in Diggs are arguably the best WR duo in the league and each were able to produce in 2018. Cousins also has a history of throwing to the TE so if Rudolph is traded/cut, Irv Smith can be a big sleeper in 2018. Finally while the run blocking needs to improve, Dalvin certainly has the opportunity for 2019.