Today we are looking at new QB and WR pairings using 2018 data. Often times we speculate that X QB will work with Y WR just cause it seems like they will make it work. This post is gonna do its best job to share information about these new pairings.
In my opinion there are two factors that you can look into to see if the two will click:
1.) The depth in air yards (actual amount the ball travels in the air) the QB often throws or WR runs. This measures the risk a QB is willing to take with throws downfield
2.) The location of the field the QB throws (inside/slot outside). This favors what area of the field the QB tends to like.
Each of these shows the QB’s trends in where they make their reads & where or how long they prefer to throw. If these reads relate to their new WRs tendencies then a connection is likely . Now I know there are external factors in that the OC might design plays to get action to the new WR, or maybe they were misused in their old offense. Both can be true. But I still want to try and draw any conclusions I can. I am going to do a brief analysis on each pairing that way this isn’t too long. Here is an example for what I’ll be doing for each new pairing:
*note each QBs data is for a pass attempt, and WR data for target
– Carr averaged 6.94 Air Yards per attempt in 2018 which was 37th in the NFL
– AB averaged 11.39 Average Air Yards per target and Tyrell 12.33
Okay so two things can happen with this offense in 2019; Carr finally has the weapons to take more shots downfield and return to 2016 form. Or AB and Tyrell run a lot shorter routes hindering their fantasy performance. I would lean that Carr improves, you don’t go out and get these guys to then make them run short routes. IMO Derek Carr is a big value in 2019.
– Josh Allen was first in the NFL in Air Yards. He also only threw 64% of his passes as short passes which was 42nd in the league
– Meanwhile 91% of Beasley’s targets were “short” routes
I don’ think Josh Allen is a good or accurate QB. But regardless with the amount of volume he throws deep, it matches up perfect with John Brown. I’m sure they will try to design plays for Beasley but I still think he is a creature of habit and will try to hook up with the speedster Brown frequently.
Cleveland Browns *note don’t compare with charts above, since only 2 names it already looks wider
– Mayfield was 4th in the NFL in Average Air Yards per attempt.
– OBJ was 8th in the NFL with 35 deep targets (despite missing 4 games), and that was with Eli Manning
I love both of these players and honestly Odell is being undervalued in 2019 FF drafts. I don’t care if Landry is on the team cause running deep isn’t what Landry is good at anyways. Both are big buys, espescially Odell.
– Luck was 28th in avg Air Yards in 2018
– Funchess is a big body who only had an average of 1.76 yards after the catch in 2018 meaning he won’t be used on short routes since he’s not fast enough to break free
Again I know Funchess is in a new situation now but I think the drafting of Parris Campbell adds another factor to the target share. Also Funchess was only signed to a low risk 1 year deal.
– Dak averaged about 7 air yards per attempt in 2018
– Cobb averaged 7.7 air yards per target in 2018
Cooper will obviously be the #1 but Cobb has some sneaky value here as I would presume the #2 in the Cowboys offense, although health is always an issue.
– Wentz was 24th in average Air Yards per attempt in 2018
– Meanwhile Jackson averaged about 19 air yards per target with the bucs
Jackson has always been a boom or bust WR. Even if the Eagles move Agholor, Jackson would still be behind Ertz and Jefferey in terms of targets. I don’t see his play-style mixing with Went’z and would only buy at very low value.
New York Giants
– OBJ had 125 targets in 2018 and is no longer with the team. Saquon also had 120 as a running back meaning that Eli was dumping it down a lot. Eli now is another year older with a poor o-line, has already been dumping it down a lot and can now dump it to Tate. Tate is a big buy just looking at how often he had targets of about 5 air yards.
New York Jets
– Darnold was 5th in the league in avg Air yards per attempt so if there is anyone in this offense I’m targeting it’s Robby Anderson. I believe Crowder can help out the football team, but won’t have a ton of fantasy value.
– Hogan averaged 13.45 Air yards per target in 2018
Even with Funchess gone, I don’t see Hogan having any value behind CMC and DJ. Newton doesn’t really take shots downfield, and when he does in 2019 it will certainly be favored towards DJ Moore.
– Mariota was 25th in avg Air Yards per pass in 2018
– Humphries only averaged about 6 air yards per target in 2018
Despite the Titans being a low volume passing team, in PPR formats I think he will have some value in 2019. Paying someone like Humphries despite having a big man in Corey Davis is certainly telling. A large portion of Humphries’ targets were 5 yards from the line of scrimmage which should work with Mariota’s game manger style.